Some issues in Middle Eastern international migration.

نویسنده

  • I Sirageldin
چکیده

2 controversial issues related to the consequences of Middle Eastern international migration were examined: its effect on the development policies of the labor importing countries with a special reference to the case of Kuwait; and its effect on the growth potential of the labor exporting countries with special reference to recent development in Egypt's agricultural reproductivity. A preliminary note comments on the analytical nature of international labor migration in the Middle East and on the public view of emigrants as export commodities. The basic parameters of a desired population parity are interrelated. It is possible to influence the labor ratio (R2) as well as the nonKuwait crude labor participation rate (R3) through a migration policy. Thus, given a policy objective of some desired balance stated in trms of 1 or more of the identified parameters, it is possible to analyze the consequences of alternative migration strategies. It is important to consider the role of relative productivity (R6). An attempt to change R6 has implications for both the design of a migration policy and a national policy of human capital formation. Other factors may not be immediately related to a migration policy. The question then is whether these ratios are sensitive to policy intervention. In a simulation exercise it was assumed that the Kuwaiti crude labor force participation rate (R4) will increase by 13% during a period of 10 years. R4 increases if relatively more people work. Women are 1 segment of the labor force that is not adequately represented, partly because of traditions, lack of skills, and the presence of high fertility. None of these can change in the short run without an active policy of social reform. Yet, the assumption seems to be in the right direction. A policy that attempts to reduce R4 through increasing fertility in Kuwait is clearly against the tide. In sum, the labor importing countries faced with recent unfavorable demographic realities will actively develop population policies that are consistent with their socioeconomic plans. The flow of labor immigration is a tool that can be manipulated on relatively short notice, and the economic cost of such a policy is relatively simple to estimate. In examining labor exporting countries, the focus is narrowed to 1 sector (agriculture) and with 1 issue their emigration behavior are being blamed simultaneously for the decline of the agricultural sector. Some hypotheses are offered. Clearly, emigration in the case of Egyptian agriculture must be evaluated in terms of the gross benefit of remittances and in terms of their effect on local production in the short-and longterm. It seems that population and development policies must take care of the effect of emigration on agricultural productivity through 2 channels: the effect of remittances on expenditure and labor market behavior; and its effect on fertility behavior.

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عنوان ژورنال:
  • Pakistan development review

دوره 22 4  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 1983